Archives for posts with tag: statistics

If I look at the average temperature over the last two weeks—78 degrees (high) and 57 degrees (low) since May 28—and the average rainfall during that period—1.30 inches per week—they appear to be almost ideal conditions for growing vegetables.

But if I look at the actual distribution of temperature and precipitation, the situation is less than favorable.  At the end of May and beginning of June, there were three days with temperatures at or near 90 degrees which were preceded and followed by days with highs around 70 and lows below 50.

Similarly, almost half of the total rainfall over that two-week period (1.03 inches) fell on one day; a large part of the remainder (0.44 inches) occurred the day before (as part of the same storm system).  That’s almost 1 1/2 inches of rain in a 36 hour period.

(These numbers are based on reports from the Weather Channel website; our conditions could be very different.  One of these days, I might get a high/low thermometer and rain gauge and place them in the garden.)

The extremes of temperature (at either end of the spectrum) can easily kill a plant, especially a young, recently-transplanted one.  And rainfalls of greater than half an inch (over 24 hours) are a waste of water, most of which runs off.  Heavy rains can also damage plants (due to impact) and often cause flooding or erosion.

I’m not complaining—there would be no point—but it leads me to imagine the garden of the average family from The Phantom Tollbooth, by Norton Juster.  Most likely tended by the fractional (0.58) child, the garden would probably be relatively small (being of average size) but I expect that the growing conditions would be good (even if, well, average).  On the other hand, the quality of the average family’s garden would be less than exceptional (by definition) so it would be something of a trade-off.

Always striving for the perfect tomato or stellar Sugar Snap pea, I’ll take my chances with our sometimes less-than-ideal conditions.

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Once again, the odds are against us.  Last night, the National Weather Service issued a frost advisory and tonight, a freeze warning is in effect.  We are more than a week beyond the official last expected frost date but as noted before, that doesn’t mean that frost or freezing temperatures are impossible, just that they are unlikely.  This late in the season, it should be very unlikely.

Have we entered a period of unlikely occurrences?  If I had a jar filled with uncooked rice and beans, would the two be perfectly separated, one layered over the other?  [See The Eyre Affair, by Jasper Fforde.]  Would now be a good time to travel into deep space?  [See The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, by Douglas Adams.]  Should I run out and buy a Lotto ticket?

Last night, I covered the most delicate seedlings in the garden—the romaine and red leaf lettuces—and tonight I will do the same.  But with a greater risk of freezing temperatures, I will also cover the west planter.  I should be able to get black plastic sheeting over everything except the peas who extend well above the top of the planter (even if their trellis was not in the way).  They will have to tough it out.

Even during the day it is colder outside than it is indoors (just like winter!).  Therefore, I am suspending the hardening off.  It’ll be like a snow day except that everybody has to stay inside.